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Population Management

Page history last edited by rothscea@dukes.jmu.edu 11 years, 11 months ago

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Population Management

 

Population growth is one of the cornerstones of escalating water consumption in Beijing. In order to create a sustainable domestic water consumption in Beijing, population growth will have to be slowed and then negated as the estimated carrying capacity of Beijing at current consumption rates is about 3 times what it should be. Table # below estimates Beijing's carrying capacity based on annual consumption rates per capita. An ideal condition with the population consuming ~115 m3/person*year yields a carrying capacity of approximately 7 million people - 1/3 of the current population of Beijing [1]. 

 

 The table below depicts the estimated carrying capacity of Beijing based upon the consumption (x m3/person-yr), the total water available water resource including groundwater, the minimum eco-environmental water demand in Beijing (forest vegetation in mountain areas, water and soil conservation, afforestation in plains areas, river base flows, and river sediment discharge), and the percentage of water utilized for domestic use.

 

 

However, this does not account for the estimated annual supply of water which will be diverted from the Yangtze through the SNDP. The estimated volume of water to be diverted by 2020 is 9.48 billion m3 and by 2050 44.8 billion m3 [1]. Therefore, in order to find a carrying capacity which will include these estimates, they need to be added to the total available water resource as shown below.

 

 

Where

W= total water available resource including precipitation, surface water, and groundwater. 39.5 million m3 represents the supply without the volume from the SNDP [1].

WE = the minimum eco-environmental water demand in Beijing [1].

alpha = Beijing's percentage of domestic water use [1].

Au = Beijing's comprehensive per capita urban domestic water quota which is currently ~150 m3/person annually.

 

 

Therefore, the carrying capacity of Beijing is 27.9 million people based on the estimated supply of 9.48 billion m3 from the SNDP and current consumption rates. Now, the estimated growth rate can be calculated in the equation below. 

 

Beijing's current population growth rate is ~3.8% and if Beijing wishes to achieve a sustainable growth rate by 2020 it needs to decline its growth rate to 2.9% and then remain stagnant. This is obviously not a viable option to simply "stop" growth after 2020. Thus, the following calculation represents the carrying capacity of Beijing by 2050 while raising the consumption rate to 600 m3/person per year which is a four-fold increase from current rates, however is still 400 m3/person annually away from our goal of 1000 m3/person annually. 

Thus, in 2050, the carrying capacity will be 27.1 million people after increasing the consumption rate four-fold and Beijing will have to drop the annual average growth rate to 0.5% over 38 years. This sharp decline in population growth can be managed in techniques discussed in later section. The calculation below illustrates the goal of 1000 m3/person annually and the carrying capacity and declining growth rate needed to achieve this goal.

 

The 1000 m3/person annually yields a carrying capacity of 16.3 million people and will have a declining growth rate of -0.8% per year over the next 38 years.

 

Immigration, as opposed to natural increases (births less deaths), will continue to be the primary source of population growth in Beijing. Citizens of China are attracted to the affluence and aesthetics of the region as it has been an economic powerhouse for nearly the entirety of China's history. Therefore, instead of implementing a more enforceable one-child policy which deals with natural increases, socioeconomic solutions pertaining to incentivizing Western China could be implemented to slow growth and redirect it to developing regions in the West.

 

Overall, the region comprises a whopping 70% of China's landmass, 28% of China's population, and 17% of its GDP [2]. In 2001, the Chinese government implemented its Western Development Strategy to improve the lagging economic progress of the region by offering incentives for business development, including a 10% corporate tax reduction and massive infrastructure development in urban and rural areas [2]. Throughout the past 10 years of this implementation, the central government had financed more than $512.4 billion to support development of the western region. During the nine years from 2000 to 2008, GDP of the western region jumped from 1.66 trillion yuan to 5.82 trillion yuan - an average growth rate of 11.7%. 

 

It is suggested to continue to incentivize the West through a variety of support measures for the West, including (1) major construction projects in areas of transportation, telecommunications, electricity transmission networks and urban infrastructure, (2) policy measures to support development of the Western Region, and (3) infusion of construction funds and increased fiscal subsidies such as low tax rates for a certain period of time. This, in return, will alleviate the difference in affluence based on geographic region in China and will create a more sustainable distribution of the population. 

 

[1]Zhang, Y., Chen, M., Zhou, W., Zhuang, C., & Ouyang, Z. (2010). Evaluating beijing. Journal of Environmental Sciences22(8), 1297-1304. Retrieved from                  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1001074209602539

 

[2]Mayer, Adam. "China Development: Go West, Young Comrade." Newgeography.com. 26 Sept. 2010. Web. 29 Apr. 2012. <http://www.newgeography.com/content/001785-china-development-go-west-young-comrade>.

 

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