The central problem in Sudan is water scarcity leading to increased death rates from waterborne illnesses and other negative health implications (layout seen in Figure 3).

Half of the Nile River runs through countries that essentially have no effective rainfall. About "40% of Africa’s population lives in the Nile basin and is projected to at least double by 2025” (El-Fadel, 2003). Due to the rise of the human population and increased consumption of water, water is becoming more scarce and degraded. Most of the nine countries that surround the Nile do not have legal rights to the Nile. The countries with the largest water withdrawals from the Nile are Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Between these countries there are severe political obstacles that further complicate the water issue. Through old treaties, “Egypt prohibited Sudan and Ethiopia from developing water projects along the Nile within their territories and threatened to go to war with any country that will threaten the Nile water” (El-Fadel, 2003). Although all three countries are suffering from the effects of water scarcity and reduced quality, Sudan is experiencing greater negative implications. We are therefore focusing only on the Sudan as the problem region in the Nile basin. Figure 1 represents a diagram of the factors influencing the problem and the interaction between these factors, causal pathways, and the resulting outcome. 

Figure 1. Diagram of the nature of the water problem in the Nile River. The rectangle represents a factor, the triangle represents a causal pathway and a factor, the diamond represents only a causal pathway, and the circle represents the resulting probable outcome. 

Factors

Several factors contribute to the water scarcity problem in Sudan. The primary factors include: climate, poverty,  population, Sudanese governmental infrastructure, water pollution, outdated treaties with Egypt, and agricultural practices.

Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have varying average annual rainfalls. The annual rainfall in the northern half of Sudan varies from 200 mm in the center of the country to 25 mm northwards towards the border with Egypt. In regions that have rain, the rainy season is “limited to 2-3 months with the rest of the year virtually dry” (Country Profile: Sudan, 2005). Ethiopia has an average annual rainfall of 848 mm, which is nearly four times that of Sudan (Country Profile: Ethiopia, 2005). Egypt also has a low average annual rainfall of 200 mm and 51 in more arid regions; however, they continue to have high agricultural yields by withdrawing water from the Nile and using it for irrigation  (Country Profile: Egypt, 2009). Overall, Sudan has less rainfall than Ethiopia and less available water than Egypt. The Sudan is experiencing heightened rates of evaporation in which the largest swamp in the world, the Sudd, "accounts for the evaporation of more than 50 percent of the water that comes down from the White Nile. [Also,] the Atbarah River that comes down from Ethiopia only reaches the Nile between July and December. Thus the people living in this area cannot receive water from this source during the remainder of the year" (Karyabwite, 2000). 

Population growth is another primary factor influencing water scarcity. Africa has a rapid population growth of “2.3% a year, double the rate of Asia’s, in which Ethiopia is projected to reach a population increase of 3.1 % or more a year during the remaining part of the present century" (Achamyeleh, 1997). Sudan has increased its annual population growth from 2.1% in 2001 to 2.5% in 2011 (Index, 2011). Over the past thirty years the increased population has nearly doubled the demand for ecological resources. Since the population is overusing the land with intensive agricultural practices, "Africa has [already] lost 75 percent of its water resources and is projected to lose another 13 percent by 2025," in which overpopulation is contributing to the state of underdevelopment, poverty, social disintegration, ecological deterioration, and political instability throughout the basin (Yohannes, 2008). According to the World Bank, the Nile River Basin is home to an estimated 160 million people, while almost 300 million live in the nine countries that share the Nile's waters. Within the next 25 years population within the Basin is expected to double, which will increase the demand for water generated by growth in the industrial and agricultural sectors.

The weak Sudanese governmental infrastructure has resulted in a bloody civil war and a political separation of the nation. Sudan has a framework of a presidential representative democratic republic; however, the president, Omar al-Bashir, and the National Congress Party (NCP) contain all of the effective power over the 15 states of Sudan. The NCP came to power in 1989, in which war and violent acts have occurred more frequently since the NCP's creation. There are four primary ethnic groups, "the Sudanese Arab (70%), Fur, Beha, Nuba, and Fallata" (Africa: Sudan, 2012).  The origin of the conflict involves the management of scarce resources, including water. The leading ethnic group, Arabs, have exerted their dominance over the people of Sudan. Due to this power struggle, southern rebels in Sudan, known as the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), began to obtain support from surrounding countries like Ethiopia, Uganda, and Eritrea to fight back.The Nubians grew sympathetic for the southern Sudanese people (SPLA) in 1985 and, "since then, the [Sudanese] government has used food deprivation as a major weapon against them, and the Sudanese army has subjected the Nubians to regular air bombardments and ferocious ground assaults" (Yohannes, 2008).  A genocide in Darfur is taking place in which the Arabs are essentially performing ethnic cleansing of the Africans who resist their power. Since the country is in a time of turmoil, developing a proper water infrastructure is on the lower end of priorities.

Peace in Sudan has not been accomplished largely due to the weak governmental infrastructure; the government has been unable to resolve significant conflicts in Sudan effectively. In 2006 there was a comprehensive peace agreement signed by the SPLA; however, this agreement required the compliance of two other groups, which ultimately rejected to meet the terms of the peace agreement. The result of the failed peace accord was the continuance of the war in the Sudan. In June of 2011, the Darfur Peace Agreement was proposed and ultimately signed by the Government of Sudan and the Liberation and Justice Movement on the 14th of July. On this day, the Republic of South Sudan officially declared independence, seceding from Sudan (Background, 2012). However, little progress has been made to actually end the war and stop the genocidal acts against the non-Arab Sudanese citizens. There are currently thousands of peacekeepers from the joint African Union-UN peacekeeping mission (known as Unamid) in the Sudan, but the country is still experiencing a genocide.  In order to focus their attention on developing a sustainable infrastructure to have accessible, clean and safe water, the country must overcome its civil war by obtaining peace within the boarders of Sudan and South Sudan. 

Another main contributing factor to water scarcity in Sudan is the outdated political treaties with Egypt. In 1929, leaders in Egypt made the argument that Egypt as a country has less effective rainfall, a higher population density, and thus a higher demand and right to obtain water from the Nile. In the 1956 treaties, countries received a cap of the amount of water that they could withdrawal from the Nile. Egypt received the largest withdrawal cap per year. Since the Sudan can only withdrawal 18.5 billion cubic kilometers of water from the Nile, Sudan has experienced heightened water scarcity due to this limitation. These treaties also make it difficult to create infrastructure projects due to the non-retention water policy. Egypt has the right to the water that flows down the Nile; if countries upstream of the river block some of that water for infrastructure projects, they would violate the agreement with Egypt. In order to clean water at a sanitation facilities, is must first be retained. This means that the Sudan would have to divert a measurable portion of the water flowing through the Nile for personal consumption for sanitation purposes. If the diversion of water for sanitation purposes leads to the Sudan consuming more than 18.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) for that given year, then the agreement with Egypt will be violated. Instead of developing water infrastructure projects that would manage water pollution and make water distribution easier, most of the nine Nile basin countries are focusing on obtaining the water they are allotted and using it for essential purposes. The days in which Egypt has the ability to enforce these outdated treaties may be numbered. Even though the Egyptian military is four times larger than the Sudanese military, Egypt may lose some of this power due to unavoidable natural factors. One of these main factors is that the current flow of the Nile is not certain to stay at the same levels in the future. Also, the reality that future demands on the Nile's water resources are certain to increase as climate change begins to be more severe and populations grow. "Under these circumstances, to think that military power might be applied to perpetuate the existing water arrangement is not only foolish but also self-defeating" (Yohannes, 2008).

The ultimate results of the outdated political treaties are increased poverty and a lack of economic development in Sudan. Sudan is a very poor country ranking 139th among 177 countries in Human Development Index, in which over two-thirds of the population are estimated to live on less than US $1/day (Country Profile: Sudan, 2005). Since the country as a whole is in poverty, they cannot afford to build a sustainable water infrastructure, which leads to an increase in water scarcity.  Countries, other than Egypt, surrounding the Nile “remain politically unstable and suffer from famine and chronic malnutrition, limiting their ability toward social and economic development, as well as to devise comprehensive water schemes, and adopt water efficient technologies” (El-Fadel, 2003). Although Sudan has a Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR) and a Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MIWR), the water harvesting projects that were implemented were unsuccessful due to technical inefficiency and a lack of technical knowledge for the development of the projects. According to the CIA World Factbook, 40% of the Sudanese population is under the poverty line, in which the vast majority of the people work in the agricultural sector (about 80%), and are experiencing a debt of $39.7 billion (Africa: Sudan, 2012). About half of Sudan's GDP comes from the agricultural sector, which uses a 97% of the available water. Figure 4 shows the surface water withdrawals by sector in Sudan in the year 2005.

                                                                      Figure 4. Surface water withdrawals by sector in Sudan, 2005.

Living sustainably and still producing high agricultural yields requires efficient technologies. Since Sudan is in poverty, it is very difficult to develop sustainable methods for agriculture and irrigational purposes due to the expenses of adopting such practices. Beginning in the 1960’s, the main crops that were grown in Sudan were “cotton, peanuts, and wheat. In 1965 sugarcane was added, and a sugar factory having a design capacity of 60,000 tons was built to process it” (Sudan-Agriculture, n.d.). Throughout the years crops such as wheat, peanuts, and sugarcane also became vital crops. The Nile and its tributaries provided the water for “93 percent of irrigated agriculture, and of this the Blue Nile accounted for about 67 percent. Gravity flow was the main form of irrigation, but about one-third of the irrigated area was served by pumps” (Agriculture, n.d.). The agricultural economy; however, took a fall in the 1980s when there was a severe drought in Sudan which caused an enormous sink in their irrigation systems. 

This inherited form of agricultural practices increased the desire for harnessing and controlling water, which ultimately led to projects involving dams and canals. These dams and canals increased the dryland and water salinity, which is a leading factor impacting water quality. Dryland salinity occurs when, “a saline water table comes close to ground level and evaporation leaves salt at the soil surface” (Causes, 2007). Sodium chloride is the main form of salt in saline areas (which builds up over time) can be transported to regions by wind from oceans, and by being released from rock material. Salinity is hazardous to plant the ecological health because it “reduces the ability of the plant to take up water, and this leads to reductions in the growth rate [also known as] osmotic or water-deficit effect of salinity" (Munns, n.d.). If excessive amounts of salt enter the plant in the transpiration stream, then there will be injury to the cells in the transpiring leaves. There are several visual symptoms of high salinity levels. Some of these symptoms include, “Die-back of mature trees, waterlogging caused by groundwater seepage; patchy crop and pasture establishment, reduced yields, legumes performing poorly […], sea barley grass, bare areas, and salt crystals” (Causes, 2007).

Since the salinity levels in the water and on dryland increased, certain crops have experienced lower yields during their agricultural dominant time for growth. The three main international grains are: wheat, rice, and maize. Wheat is a more salt-tolerant crop species, and only experience a 50% reduction in biomass yield when the salinity levels reach 150 mM of NaCl. Rice is considered the most salt-sensitive of the three and can experience a “50% reduction in growth at 75 mM of NaCl" (Munns, n.d.). Since Sudan produces mainly wheat the country has not suffered exceedingly low crop yields; however, using practices such as crop rotations could significantly improve the lands ecological condition. Crop rotations include using different types of crops in the same area of land in sequential seasons. This reduces the amount of pathogens and pests present on the land by alternating deep-rooted and shallow-rooted plants. Growing the same plants in the same area will result in the depletion of certain nutrients in the soil, by rotating crops, the nutrient levels vary which results in a different ratio of nutrients, and thus less depletion. 

Implications of Factors

An arid climate, population, water pollution, civil warfare, outdated treaties with Egypt, and agricultural practices are all factors contributing to impaired water quality, limited agricultural water, shortage of infrastructure projects, and water scarcity in Sudan.

Sudan is experiencing escalating water quality degradation, due to pollution, which is projected to significantly increase by 2025 and thus decrease consumable water. Impaired water quality can lead to death, spread of diseases, and economic & political instability of the surrounding regions.  The water quality impairment in the Nile is evident due to the increased salinity levels and siltation in the river. The overall salinity levels in the Nile “increased from 160 mg/L at the High Aswan Dam to 250 mg/L in Cairo” (Wahaab, 2004). Water quality problems have arisen in most countries surrounding the Nile; however, due to the lack of adequate rainfall, Sudan and South Sudan are currently facing the more serious implications.  In Ethiopia, salinity levels of irrigated land has reportedly not resulted in abandonment. The problem of water quality due to drainage water from irrigated fields is not serious because the large rivers dilute it” (Country Profile: Ethiopia, 2005). While in Sudan, due to the increased consumption of water, creation of several dams and the Jongeli Canal, “The deposition of silt in irrigation canals and the subsequent built-up of aquatic weeds result in losses in production of up to 40 percent” (Country Profile: Sudan, 2005). Another water quality concern is the rise of agricultural chemicals in Sudan. About 450 tonnes of insecticides and 150 tonnes of herbicides were applied annually during the years 1993 to 1997. Herbicides and insecticides have been found to kill human cells, to alter hormonal signaling, and to have other negative human health repercussions.

Due to the increase in pollution, arid climate, population increase and lack of rainfall, the amount of available consumable water has decreased. This has led to a decrease in water for domestic and agricultural usages. The limiting factor of agricultural production in Sudan is the lack of or the sporadic behavior of rainfall. Due to limited about of precipitation and increased pollution levels, there has been a lack of usable water for agricultural purposes. This has resulted in a significant loss of agricultural production in Sudan, and thus reduced crop yields. In Lake Nasser silt accumulation has greatly increased. This has caused Sudan to lose “around 10% of its annual crop production due to declining soil fertility, mostly because of increased salt content” (El-Fadel, 2003). A loss of production enhances the country’s poverty and lack of economic development. The ultimate result of reduced agricultural production is fewer water infrastructure projects (due to a lack of funding) and increased water scarcity and impaired health. 

Resulting Outcome:

The overall outcome of water scarcity, pollution, limited agricultural and domestic water, increased poverty and lack of economic development, is poor health in Sudan. Several health implications result from polluted water or a lack of water. One of the most severe human health implications is the rise in occurrence of waterborne illnesses.Waterborne illnesses are the results of water stagnation. Water stagnation is when water stop flowing or the flow is significantly slowed. This allows for the breeding of viruses and bacteria, which ultimately leads to diseases that humans can catch--waterborne illnesses. Some water borne diseases include: cholera, amebiasis, cryptosporidiosis, hepatitis A, giardiasis, and salmonellosis (Masters, 2008). There are different symptoms for each illness, but some common symptoms include: diarrhea, fever, headaches, nausea, vomiting, and flu-like symptoms. Waterborne illnesses result mainly because of a lack of sanitation and are the leading cause of death throughout the world. Nearly half the population of the developing world is suffering from waterborne illnesses. Most of these occurrences are associated with poor provision of water and sanitation services. One of the most common waterborne illnesses, diarrhea, results in about one or two million deaths a year. About 90 percent of all diarrhea cases occur in children under the age of five.

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