Future Implications
Bangladesh is facing a bleak future due to a growing population mixed with existing poverty and the future implications of climate change. As indicated in Figure 4, the population of Bangladesh is increasing steadily and shows no signs of slowing in the near future. With the population of Bangladesh growing, the water crisis is going to become more severe. An India-based Strategic Foresight Group who are conducting a study on Himalayan water security projects that Bangladesh’s water availability will decrease 22% by 2030. Even though Bangladesh contributes less than 0.1% of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels to the overall climate, they are projected to be the ones who will feel the greatest impact from climate change (Huq, 2001). The Himalayan River Basin, of which Bangladesh is a part, will face “massive water depletion within 20 years, leading to a decline in food and mass migration” (Dhaka, 2010). This depletion will be in response to the accelerated melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas caused by climate change. These glaciers act as a natural freshwater storage in the winter. In the spring and summer, the glaciers slowly melt and feed the rivers. As the temperature increases, less water is freezing in the winter, leading to less snow and ice melting to supply the rivers in the summer, causing a shortage. Due to Bangladesh’s agricultural economy, the lack of fresh water in the coming decades may even further impoverish the people.
Figure 4. Population of Bangladesh over Time
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&id
Climate change also contributes to the rising sea level from the melting of glaciers and thermal expansion. Since Bangladesh is a coastal country, the rise in sea level “may push Bangladesh to the risks of food insecurity, outbreak of water-borne diseases and loss of bio-diversity” (Dhaka, 2010). Some of the coasts of Bangladesh are lined with mangrove trees. These trees act as a stabilizer for the banks and provide protection from floods and tsunamis. These mangrove trees are now being threatened by the sea level increase and salt water intrusion on the coastal areas. Without these trees, a vital part of the coasts security will be in jeopardy. Combined with the increase in weather and natural disasters projected as another repercussion of climate change, there could “result in the displacement of millions of people from coastal regions, and have huge adverse impacts on the livelihoods and long-term health of a large proportion of the population.” (Kumar, 2009).
http://www.bdresearchpublications.com/admin/journal/upload/09168/09168.pdf
Figure 5: Cause Tree Diagram for Climate Change of Bangladesh
Bangladesh's surface water source may be threatened in the coming decades due to a dam project planned by India. It will divert water in the Barak river, which will in turn cut the Meghna River’s water flow and “the country will gradually turn into desert amid acute water crisis” (Dhaka, 2010). An upstream deforestation project on the Himalayan mountainsides of India has decreased the ability to absorb rains from the monsoon season and has lead to increased flooding and sediment in the rives (Haroun & Babar, 1998). These upstream projects and diversions have led to a hostile environment and possibly future conflict among the countries.
With the availability of fresh water projected to decline in the coming years, Bangladesh needs to revise its water management plans and create new innovative ways of treating and harnessing water, as well as using less water.
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